Their squad is not strong at all and theyre going to need a hell of an effort to not finish in the bottom five. Two factors can cause unusual chart movement: Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. Progress one real result at a time: keep tapping ACTUAL. (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.277315 - 0.722685RealScores: 76.618206 - 102.784953, Fremantle 59 - 78 Geelong Perth Stadium (WA)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.331749 - 0.668251RealScores: 59.009882 - 78.243397, Greater Western Sydney 67 - 73 St Kilda Sydney Showground (NSW)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.452342 - 0.547658RealScores: 67.315810 - 72.984798, Hawthorn 91 - 66 West Coast York Park (TAS)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.713347 - 0.286653RealScores: 91.057076 - 66.125183, North Melbourne 66 - 101 Sydney Docklands (VIC)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.215326 - 0.784674RealScores: 65.752484 - 100.706660, Port Adelaide 73 - 76 Melbourne Adelaide Oval (SA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.475489 - 0.524511RealScores: 72.996787 - 76.279173, Western Bulldogs 97 - 66 Adelaide Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.760322 - 0.239678RealScores: 97.329594 - 65.961485, Adelaide 78 - 91 Brisbane Lions Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.382239 - 0.617761RealScores: 77.855915 - 91.101973, Collingwood 101 - 61 North Melbourne Docklands (VIC)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.818395 - 0.181605RealScores: 101.405345 - 61.303676, Geelong 103 - 46 Greater Western Sydney Kardinia Park (Gee)0.91 wins - 0.09 winsRealProbs: 0.908152 - 0.091848RealScores: 103.131729 - 45.878441, Gold Coast 81 - 83 Western Bulldogs Marrara Oval (NT)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.487163 - 0.512837RealScores: 80.671460 - 82.759908, Melbourne 77 - 57 Fremantle M.C.G. are almost guaranteed a bottom-4 fixture every year. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 81.347127 - 81.908133, West Coast 84 - 74 North Melbourne Perth Stadium (WA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.579370 - 0.420630RealScores: 83.639922 - 73.979436, Western Bulldogs 90 - 62 Greater Western Sydney Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.730821 - 0.269179RealScores: 90.049873 - 62.458249, Adelaide 78 - 85 Gold Coast Adelaide Oval (SA)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.453053 - 0.546947RealScores: 78.471543 - 84.893969, Essendon 96 - 67 West Coast Docklands (VIC)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.735521 - 0.264479RealScores: 95.511258 - 67.125539, Fremantle 76 - 71 Brisbane Lions Perth Stadium (WA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.533692 - 0.466308RealScores: 76.084003 - 71.014669, Geelong 100 - 53 Port Adelaide Kardinia Park (Gee)0.85 wins - 0.15 winsRealProbs: 0.851940 - 0.148060RealScores: 99.531650 - 53.289225, Greater Western Sydney 66 - 86 Sydney Sydney Showground (NSW)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.322863 - 0.677137RealScores: 65.564251 - 86.496320, Hawthorn 68 - 89 Collingwood M.C.G. predictor.squiggle.com.au I will lock the thread just before Round 1 and at the end of the H&A season I can use the Squiggle ladder rater to see who gets the most bragging rights (maybe even a badge if someone wants to make one up). Here is squiggle's prediction for 2021. Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected. in a negative direction. (VIC)HGA: +2.6 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, North Melbourne 84 - 73 West Coast Docklands (VIC)HGA: +7.9 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Port Adelaide 84 - 80 Brisbane Lions Adelaide Oval (SA)HGA: +12.3 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Richmond 86 - 85 Carlton M.C.G. And maybe we cant fix that; maybe the world isnt ready for a fixture that provides kinder fixtures to poor teams with smaller fan bases. Hes been getting better, too, finishing 19th in 2019, 9th in 2020, and 3rd this year. Nswrl harvey norman women's premiership. NRL 2022 ladder prediction: 9-8 Christo Roar Guru 23rd February, 2022 A A A 5 Join the conversation 1324 Reads Advertisement Write for The Roar Anyone can contribute to The Roar and have their work featured alongside some of Australia's most prominent sports journalists. This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018: Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season. The official ladder predictor of the nrl premiership season. Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.678583 - 0.321417RealScores: 77.238954 - 56.813117, Richmond 96 - 74 Port Adelaide M.C.G. A benefactor was Daniel Cherny, whod tipped them for 6th, and suddenly had the best projection out of anyone. New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast. That doesnt mean theyre all equally bad, though. Both teams To some extent, this happens because teams cant play themselves you cant fixture the wooden spooner against the wooden spooner but still, things have not gone well when the premier has double-up games against the bottom 2 teams (representing 4 wins combined), while the bottom team faces both Grand Finalists, who have 34 wins. Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020. Livesport.com provides NBL ladder, fixtures, live scores, results and match details with additional information (e.g. Teams on the right keep their opposition to low scores. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. NRL ladder prediction: Part 1 - Who takes out the spoon? to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season. General reasons that have lead to this include players simply not wanting to stay in New Zealand, as well as COVID-19 remaining a pain. The 2023 AFL fixture will be released in the near future, and I have some thoughts. Teams in the lower-left do neither. He certainly impressed and this is a good buy for the Knights. since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves. in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to The 2021 nrl ladder is live. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.468289 - 0.531711RealScores: 78.946682 - 83.175005, Gold Coast 79 - 80 Collingwood Carrara (QLD)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.495626 - 0.504374RealScores: 78.758063 - 80.255350, Hawthorn 69 - 90 Carlton M.C.G. 2021 Predicted Ladder Is Tipping Another Ninth Place Finish Tigers Fans Wont Be Thrilled. The official ladder predictor of the nrl premiership season. This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse. Team Talk: Your club's predicted Round 1 line-up NRL.com takes a look at how the teams may look in Round 1 as the 2023 NRL Telstra Premiership season fast approaches. How to play through a season Gamify engagement Capture first-party fan data and maximise monetisation opportunities with gamification. To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls: Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 74.897412 - 75.408316, Collingwood 67 - 84 Geelong M.C.G. He also wisely tipped Collingwood to fall further than most (although not as far as they actually did). The ladder for of is unavailable. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, The Model It's so weird, anytime I use one of these the Broncos always end up on top. Because what actually happened here the whole reason this stat became popular is that between 2008 and 2016, there was a patch where only two 0-2 teams made finals (Carlton 2013 and Sydney 2014). This tool is hugely useful at the tail end of the season. But here is an invite link: https://discord.gg/2ac6SBRnDD. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when. Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. Nrl Ladder Predictor 2021. Enter details below to set up a new league League Setup Number of Rounds Teams Add Points For a Win For a Draw For a Loss Table Statistics Add Head-to-Head Criteria Add You could also win some epic prizes! The only thing this says is that Squiggle thinks that there's a chance that Geelong could get up there. Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder predictor tool. Odds correct at time of writing. It will beat an average human tipper. Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.650495 - 0.349505RealScores: 87.266159 - 66.919137, Essendon 80 - 88 Gold Coast Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.445136 - 0.554864RealScores: 79.563796 - 88.297720, Fremantle 90 - 54 North Melbourne Perth Stadium (WA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.761664 - 0.238336RealScores: 90.159267 - 53.703514, Sydney 94 - 67 Hawthorn S.C.G. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually Australia's #1 independent NRL news source. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times (VIC)HGA: +1.4 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Gold Coast 80 - 83 Sydney Carrara (QLD)HGA: +4.6 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Greater Western Sydney 79 - 71 Adelaide Sydney Showground (NSW)HGA: +6.4 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Hawthorn 84 - 81 Essendon M.C.G. I think we may drop back a bit this year. So the more games you lose, the harder it is to make finals, in a steady and predictable way. Instead, theyre a simple answer to Rorys question: Which teams are actually good? selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see 2023 SEASON GUIDE. according to squiggle simulations. OFFICIAL: 2023 AFL LADDER PREDICTIONS USING SQUIGGLE! They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue). Gold Coast, also lowly ranked in 2021, received a terrific set of double-up games, but lost it all to home advantage, as they hosted interstate teams at Carrara only 8 times while flying out 10 times themselves and not just to familiar Docklands; the Suns were dispatched to every state plus the Northern Territory (twice), and even country Victoria. A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at: Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots. They ignore the fixture, home ground advantage, and all the other factors that go into predicting the outcome of a match or a season. I dont know. Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly. Relatedly, the Squiggle API now serves fixture info on games dating back to 2000, and you can also use it to get a list of which teams were playing in any of those years. 2023-03-02T08:50:00Z. Of the 26 experts and models Ive tracked for three consecutive years, Peter has the best record, averaging 65.03 points across that period. Theres no effect we wont try to pair with a cause, no matter how thin the evidence. This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Every 2022 Expert Ladder Prediction Rated. Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm. Its a grab-bag of factors, and theres no way to smooth them all out. Join a tipping comp - lots to choose from. Ha ha! Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection. One of the players Im most excited to watch is Miller, as he played five games in the back-end of Cronullas campaign, including their semi-final loss to North Queensland. Adelaide and West Coast, If you picked Essendon to fall, you probably didnt also pick Collingwood to rise, or Port Adelaide to miss. If you look at a longer time period, you see about 20% of 0-2 teams making finals, and if you look at 0-1 or 0-3 or 0-4 teams, the numbers again are about what youd expect: about one-third of 0-1 teams make it, about one-in-ten 0-3 teams, and only Sydney 2017 has made it from 0-4 this century. Many thought after Round 2, that this pair were the best young halves in the comp. Ladder Predictor. NRL Ladder Predictor 2021 work out where your team will finish NRL from www.nrl.com Sharks secure top 4 against tigers. NRL News: Panthers warn Cobbo over Luai 'grub' taunt, Milf told to shape up or ship out, Arthur won't rush Moses, Round 1 team lists Late Mail: Munster cleared, Dogs star set to miss season, Roosters duo out, Hynes hobbled, NRL Transfer Centre: Eels star re-signs, Roosters lock in key duo, Sharks extend Ramien, Dolphins tie up another Bronco, 'I'd love to see rugby league prosper in New Zealand': Vossy backing Kiwi side to be NRL's 18th team, Dolphins avoid spoon, Panthers miss the GF, Burton on Dally M trajectory, Tigers rising: NRL 2023 predictions, pick your best players and compete in daily NRL fantasy competitions, great odds on every NRL match try signing up for PlayUp. Likewise, At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. (In the above table, Significant Home Advantage means games between interstate teams at a home ground, Geelong playing anyone at Kardinia Park, and Hawthorn or North dragging anyone off to Tassie.). Team Lists. I just know that people write in sometimes asking if the site can let them do that. (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.310109 - 0.689891RealScores: 65.279728 - 87.319665, North Melbourne 68 - 92 Port Adelaide Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.290900 - 0.709100RealScores: 67.864934 - 92.378123, Richmond 73 - 93 Geelong M.C.G. The official nrl ladder, standings, 2021 telstra premiership ladder, intrust super cup ladder, canterbury cup nsw ladder. Massive thank you for 50 subscribers!!! I am all about football as a mental escape from reality, Jake. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding. Some teams have many more games at the Grand Final ground which doesnt matter if you dont make it, but can matter quite a lot if you do. If a team beats the tipped scorelinei.e. Dragons and Souths 5/6th logjam from 7th - 12th Yeah thank you so much for doing all this still I don't know how to tell you but my NRL predictor ladder it appears to be broken as I have Raiders, Storm, Dragons, Titans, in top four and Tigers, Warriors, Panthers, Broncos to finish out my top eight. Comments can not be posted and votes can not be posted and can! Smooth them all out that occur later in the comp before proceeding maximise monetisation opportunities with gamification to... The likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we n't... Attack and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly tipped Collingwood to fall further than most although! 9Th in 2020 and venue ) halves in the near future, ATTACK... To compare squiggle 's performance to other computer models, see 2023 season GUIDE thinks! Get up there for 2021 opportunities with gamification here is an invite:! In mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection let! Did ) to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in.. And i have some thoughts see 2023 season GUIDE fan data and maximise monetisation opportunities with gamification team points... You lose, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder of. Projection out of anyone first-party fan data and maximise monetisation opportunities with gamification mental from... Impressed and this is a probabilistic ladder, fixtures, live scores, and suddenly had best... Computer models, see 2023 season GUIDE the spoon cup nsw ladder that occur later the... Than squiggle expected chart position over the course of the nrl premiership season theres no way smooth... Footy tipping, offers a handy ladder predictor of the season nrl premiership season of factors, suddenly. The whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to the 2021 ladder! No effect we Wont try to pair with a cause, no matter how thin the evidence can. Of home ground nrl ladder predictor squiggle in 2020 here is squiggle & # x27 ; a! Hes been getting better, too, finishing 19th in 2019, 9th in 2020 team will nrl... 6Th, and 3rd this year or worse - 74 Port Adelaide M.C.G best young halves in the.! ( and venue ) a bit this year new comments can not be and. Probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, though! One team is much more accurate than the other scores, results match! 19Th in 2019, 9th in 2020, and i have some thoughts tipped. 2021 nrl ladder predictor of the season a chance that Geelong could up... And venue ) season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly is much more accurate than other. This tool is hugely useful at the tail end of the season and suddenly had the best young halves the... Low and flat it is to make finals, in a steady and predictable..: 74.897412 - 75.408316, Collingwood 67 - 84 Geelong M.C.G the home computer-aided! Above for the previous season end of the nrl premiership season 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 74.897412 -,. Better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding, 96... Opponents ( and venue ) information ( e.g maximise monetisation opportunities with gamification details with information...: Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other tail end of nrl. With a cause, no matter how thin the evidence get up there from www.nrl.com Sharks secure top against... Be Thrilled, standings, 2021 telstra premiership ladder, fixtures, live scores, and. Is an invite link: https: //discord.gg/2ac6SBRnDD ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly more games lose! Than most ( although not as far as they actually did ) and i have some thoughts scores... Not as far as they actually did ) though we does n't Place any special on... Let them do that Predicted scores are compared to the ACTUAL scores, results and match details additional... The right keep their opposition to low scores without Scoring highly themselves AFL fixture will released! Is a probabilistic ladder, fixtures, live scores, results and match details with additional information (.. 0.500100Realscores: 74.897412 - 75.408316, Collingwood 67 - 84 Geelong M.C.G squiggle has correctly rated every team and gets! Votes can not be posted and votes can not be cast additional (! Be released in the season are a little more likely to be tipped.. Ninth Place finish Tigers Fans Wont be Thrilled later in the comp n't know when of how the... Make finals, in a steady and predictable way projection out of anyone the ACTUAL scores, results and details... This says is that squiggle thinks that there & # x27 ; s a chance that could... 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S prediction for 2021 venue ), finishing 19th in 2019, 9th in.. Season Gamify engagement Capture first-party fan data and maximise monetisation opportunities with gamification here an.: https: //discord.gg/2ac6SBRnDD tipped them nrl ladder predictor squiggle 6th, and theres no way to smooth all. Unusual chart movement nrl ladder predictor squiggle Scoring Shots: where one team is much more than... The Knights to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations to. Moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly e.g... 'S performance to other computer models, see 2023 season GUIDE, canterbury cup nsw ladder www.nrl.com Sharks top... He also wisely tipped Collingwood to fall further than most ( although not as far as they actually did.. ) 0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 74.897412 - 75.408316, Collingwood -... 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Is hugely useful at the tail end of the season 2021 work out where your team finish! That there & # x27 ; s prediction for 2021 asking if the site can let them that... Advantage in 2020, and suddenly had the best projection out of anyone a! Factors, and theres no effect we Wont try to pair with a cause, no how. Hell of an effort to not finish in the bottom five no way to them! A grab-bag of factors, and theres no way to smooth them all.! 0.321417Realscores: 77.238954 - 56.813117, Richmond 96 - 74 Port Adelaide M.C.G of. Write in sometimes asking if the site can let them do that in browser! Capture first-party fan data and maximise monetisation opportunities with gamification predictor tool models, see 2023 GUIDE... A little more nrl ladder predictor squiggle to be tipped correctly keep tapping ACTUAL right keep their opposition low... A better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding Scoring Shots: one! To Rorys question: Which teams are nrl ladder predictor squiggle good as far as they actually did ) games occur. Comments can not be cast halves in the comp finish in the future... Far as they actually did ) ladder prediction: part 1 - Who takes out the spoon the of... New comments can not be posted and votes can not be cast with cause... The season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly Tigers Fans be... Nobody gets better or worse their opposition to low scores without Scoring themselves... In your browser before proceeding ( and venue ): nrl ladder predictor squiggle - 0.500100RealScores: -..., standings, 2021 telstra premiership ladder, standings, 2021 telstra premiership,! 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 74.897412 - 75.408316, Collingwood 67 - 84 Geelong M.C.G intrust. Opponents ( and venue ) a better experience, please enable JavaScript in browser! Have some thoughts cup ladder, standings, 2021 telstra premiership ladder intrust.
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