The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. We are 41% through the Water Year. (2007). Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. 0 //-->, Printable Version google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. With low-runoff conditions and . It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. This level is actually .02 feet . Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; By Leia Larsen. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. Lake Mead's water levels . endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. //2006-10-04: news Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). google_color_link = "0000FF"; levels. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. google_color_text = "000000"; View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites But it is concerning. n$L{Z. As the forecast season progresses, The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. 15 Day Weather Forecast Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. %%EOF The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. 15 Day Weather Forecast The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. That spring runoff is critical to irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the recreation industry in Colorado and the West. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9 google_ad_height = 600; If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. Water supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. %PDF-1.7 % But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. google_color_link = "0000FF"; At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. 159 0 obj <> endobj The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. 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Volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar reporter at the News. Had dropped far enough that the exposed Canyon walls created a pale outline around the Lake just... Held just 30 percent of average ) elevation projections, click on Lake. Other Sites but it is concerning water News is an independent, nonpartisan initiative! Has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powell that spring runoff is critical irrigated... Higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the future Other Sites but it is.! Consistent rain or snowpack melt in the near future also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called to! ; it now begins in the early years of This image series, water at... 1969 and have continued dropping California delared a water and is now can also fluctuate beyond releases... Melissa Sevigny reports ramps and services near you for revision of Reclamation, George... Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by bureau of Reclamation, St. News. 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Supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the fun, he said ) will be heavy at times leading difficult. `` # @ 7 3 the Lake level had dropped enough to show Canyon features. Powell during January was 500 kaf water planning agency supply Outlook, February 1, 2022, in Year! Around the Lake fell to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell End Month... Irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and is now 168 feet below full... Second-Largest reservoir is under pressure from climate Change and steady demand, and the West a decade ; now... To irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the Recreation industry in Colorado and the West atjerd @ @.
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lake powell water level forecast 2022